
Making the Pro Bowl can be messy, because the NFL puts way too much emphasis on the fan vote -- it counts for one-third but should count for no more than 10 percent.
Witness the fact that nine players from the faltering Washington Redskins won the NFC fan vote at their position (out of a possible 19). Only four New York Giants did.
And zero Panthers.
The Pro Bowl still holds some legitimacy because the coaches' vote counts for one-third and the NFL players' vote counts for the other third. It matters: Both to players' egos and, frequently, because contractual incentives are tied to it.
The NFC and AFC 43-man Pro Bowl rosters will be announced at 4 p.m. today on NFL Network.
Carolina had zero Pro Bowlers last season. In fact, the entire NFC South had zero.
At 11-3 and tied for the NFC's best record, the Panthers deserve to have at least three Pro Bowlers this season.
After talking to some close observers of the team and covering Carolina all season, I believe 10 Panthers have played at a Pro Bowl level for part or all of this season.
Five are on offense: Steve Smith, DeAngelo Williams, Jordan Gross, Travelle Wharton and Ryan Kalil. Four are on defense: Julius Peppers, Jon Beason, Chris Gamble and Thomas Davis. One is a kicker: John Kasay.
Here's my take on whether each will make it, in order of most to least likely:
WIDE RECEIVER Steve Smith
ODDS: 80 percent. COMMENT: I'd vote for No. 89 as Carolina's MVP this season. It helps that the NFC will take four receivers -- more than at any other position. Smith is not a slam dunk only because the receiver field is so deep.
DEFENSIVE END Julius Peppers
ODDS: 75 percent. COMMENT: Peppers has 12.5 sacks and has looked like himself again. But the NFC takes only three defensive ends. Three others -- Atlanta's John Abraham, Minnesota's Jared Allen and the New York Giants' Justin Tuck -- have comparable statistics.
KICKER John Kasay
ODDS: 60 percent. COMMENT: In Kasay's best season ever, he has not missed from under 50 yards and has made 24 of 25 field-goal attempts.
LINEBACKER Jon Beason
ODDS: 55 percent. COMMENT: This second-year whirling dervish deserves to make it as the heart of Carolina's defense, but the NFC only takes two inside linebackers.
LEFT TACKLE Jordan Gross
ODDS: 50 percent. COMMENT: It's time for the Panthers' offensive line to get its due. The obvious candidate is Gross -- their franchise player and the protector of Jake Delhomme's blind side.
RUNNING BACK DeAngelo Williams
ODDS: 45 percent. COMMENT: Williams leads the NFL in touchdowns and he deserves to make it. But the NFC takes only three running backs.
Three other backs came into 2008 with bigger reputations than Williams' and sport comparable statistics: Minnesota's Adrian Peterson, Washington's Clinton Portis and Atlanta's Michael Turner. Williams is now the hottest back in the NFL, but did his strong finish come too late?
GUARD Travelle Wharton
ODDS: 35 percent. COMMENT: Wharton doesn't have the name recognition, but he's a versatile pounder who may sneak in.
CORNERBACK Chris Gamble
ODDS: 25 percent. COMMENT: Gamble is the second-best pure athlete on Carolina's team (behind Smith) and can really cover. If he didn't drop so many potential interceptions, he'd be a shoo-in.
LINEBACKER Thomas Davis
ODDS: 20 percent. COMMENT: Davis has quietly had a very good season, setting himself up well for a future Pro Bowl.
CENTER Ryan Kalil
ODDS: 10 percent. COMMENT: Kalil has gained a lot of respect quickly throughout the league. If Kalil hadn't missed four starts due to injury, he'd be a serious candidate. Maybe next year.
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